Solzy at the Movies presents predictions for tonight’s 28th SAG Awards taking place live from the Barker Hanger in Santa Monica.

What we know about the nominations are that they are not completely in line with next month’s Academy Awards. During last year’s awards season, the guild went 2-for-5. In the previous year, the guild went 5-for-5 as Parasite went on to win Best Picture. Awards season should not be 15 months long but we’re entering the final month of the season. In previous years, SAG would follow CCA in terms of pre-cursors but because of Omicron, CCA will choose winners on the same day as the BAFTAs.

When it comes to predicting, I do not predict my personal favorites. What I do is make my predictions in the way that I believe that the SAG-AFTRA guild will vote for tonight’s awards. Could CODA become the little Sundance film that could? Quite possibly. However, the film has the same problem that Belfast is facing: editor Geraud Brisson is not nominated by the Academy. While history shows us that it is not impossible, it makes for a tougher hill to climb. Birdman became the first film to win Best Picture without an editing nomination since Ordinary People. A win at the SAG Awards would certainly be huge and help the film’s awards campaign into the next month.

Andrew Garfield’s recent visibility for both tick, tick…BOOM! and Spider-Man: No Way Home is the only thing standing in the way of a Will Smith win tonight. My thoughts on Being the Ricardos notwithstanding, actors love it when actors play famous actors. History shows us that the SAG Award and next month’s Oscar is Nicole Kidman’s to lose. Could Olivia Colman or Lady Gaga end up being surprise winners? Maybe but I doubt it. In a perfect world, Emilia Jones would be nominated individually for her performance in CODA.

In terms of supporting performances, the biggest race is on the male side than the female side. It’s down to Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee. I’m giving the CODA star the edge. One thing you might not know about him is that he invented the sign language for the Tusken Raiders in both The Mandalorian and The Book of Boba Fett. How awesome is that?!? Jared Leto has zero business being nominated so he’s a non-starter. Bradley Cooper, while good, is barely even in Licorice Pizza. This leaves The Tender Bar‘s Ben Affleck but he doesn’t even have an Oscar nomination. This just leaves Kotsur and Smit-McPhee.

Much like Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress is another case where only two nominees are competing at both SAG and the Oscars. It’s Ariana DeBose’s to lose. The West Side Story role is the same role that won Rita Moreno an Oscar 50 years ago. She became the frontrunner as soon as the film started screening for critics and awards voters. That’s not to take away anything from Kirsten Dunst but Ariana DeBose is going home with a trophy tonight.

Where The Power of the Dog is Netflix’s strongest front runner heading into the Oscars, the film didn’t pick up a Best Cast nomination. This opens the door for another film to win the award and again, help their own campaign. Both CODA, Belfast, and King Richard are in similar spots in that they have cast nominations and just a single actor. Meanwhile, Don’t Look Up is only nominated for Best Cast. House of Gucci was shut out by the Academy in the acting categories but have two acting nominations in addition to Best Cast. I doubt they get any wins tonight.

The Stunt Ensemble category is one of the toughest to predict. It could really go to any one of the five nominees. There’s no Oscar category yet so looking at their nominees for how the guild could vote is not even an option. I’m giving No Time to Die the edge although it very well could be Dune or Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.

While I will make TV predictions below, I’m not going to do any analysis. I expect that last year’s Emmy winners will repeat in a few categories. What changes things up are the fact that a number of series premiered after the Emmy deadline. The big change-up in the comedy series category is that Only Murders in the Building delivered a stronger first season than Ted Lasso‘s second season. I’m going with Steve Martin but this category is the hardest one by far because all the nominees are solid contenders.

The 28th SAG Awards will be nationally simulcast LIVE on TNT and TBS on Sunday, Feb. 27, 2022 at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT from The Barker Hangar in Santa Monica.

Motion Pictures

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: CODA

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: Will Smith, King Richard

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture: No Time to Die

Television

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series: Succession

Outstanding Performance by a Ensemble in a Comedy Series: Only Murders in the Building

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series: Michael Keaton, Dopesick

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series: Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series: Jeremy Strong, Succession

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series: Sarah Snook, Succession

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series: Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series: Jean Smart, Hacks

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series: The Falcon and The Winter Soldier

The 28th SAG Awards will be nationally simulcast LIVE on TNT and TBS on Sunday, Feb. 27, 2022 at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT. It will be available to stream on HBO Max tomorrow.

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