We’re two weeks out from Oscar Sunday and Solzy at the Movies is back with a new Oscars Watch column following the SAG and PGA Awards.

If there’s one thing that the PGA Awards and SAG Awards have shown us, Everything Everywhere All At Once is unstoppable. Of course, I’ve been very open about my one problem with the film. In any event, there’s no denying how original the film is and what it means for on-screen representation. But anyway, let’s go ahead and dive right into the analysis.

Tonight was not a good night for Cate Blanchett, Angela Bassett, or Austin Butler. History shows us that things can still be in their favor on Oscar Sunday. SAG having a larger voting block shows that this is unlikely but that doesn’t make it impossible. If I had to make predictions right now, it’ll be a good night for Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Going into this weekend, it was assumed that Cate Blanchett would take home another leading Oscar for her work in TÁR. After Sunday night, there’s definitely a race for Best Actress. It could honestly go in either direction but I’m leaning towards Michelle Yeoh after the SAG Awards. The SAG Awards have the largest voting body of all the awards shows. They have a substantial overlap, if not the largest, with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

I thought BAFTA might have been just a stumbling block for Angela Bassett. BAFTA tends to love British and Irish talent so I thought it would be a one-off. The shocker of course came with the first film award of the night. After Jamie Lee Curtis’s win tonight, the race is trending in her direction. No matter what critics have to say during their respective awards, the race begins changing once the guilds start voting and announce their winners. When Jamie Lee Curtis won tonight, I felt for sure that it was going to be a strong showing for the sci-fi comedy. Lo and behold, that’s exactly what happened. We even saw course correction for Ke Huy Quan in the Supporting Actor category.

After Austin Butler’s BAFTA win for Elvis, I thought maybe this wouldn’t be Brendan Fraser’s night. His SAG win will almost certainly follow with an Oscar trophy in two weeks. That is unless the Academy decides to follow BAFTA.

There is no such thing as certainty during awards season. Anything can and will happen but you never know with the voters. While SAG could go one way, the Academy could shift directions and vote for someone else. Back in 2011, CCA and SAG awarded Viola Davis while BAFTA and Oscar went with Meryl Streep. In 2020, both SAG and Oscar differed for Best Actor and Actress. While SAG is a strong precursor, it doesn’t necessarily translate into an Oscar on Oscar Sunday. Meanwhile, a number of guilds will be announcing their awards over the next two weeks.

Active members of the Academy are eligible to vote for the winners in all 23 categories beginning Thursday, March 2, through Tuesday, March 7.

Oscars Watch will return on Oscar Sunday with predictions.

The 95th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 12, 2023, at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide.

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